Umno until Najib focussed on the collective good. The collective good meant that leaders were eased out.
In Najib’s case, he allegedly bribes about 300 warlords to buy support. These 300 comprise 191 divisional chiefs and others. Only Sarawak has no Umno divisions. 191 + 31 = 222 parliamentary seats.
The 20, 000 Umno branch chiefs are not happy the collective good has been sacrificed. Mahathir has struck a chord here.
The 40 per cent fence sitters among the Malay voters may not lean towards Umno come GE14 in 2018. The majority, 25 per cent, are more likely to vote against Umno/BN.
We can’t assume the 30 per cent hardcore racist Malay voters would continue to swear for Umno when Mahathir is one of them.
Another 30 per cent of Malay voters would continue to vote against Umno/BN.
If 55 per cent of the Malay votes counted would be against Umno/BN, 65 per cent of Indians would be against, and 75 per cent of Chinese against the ruling coalition.
In Borneo, 15 to 20 per cent of Muslim voters would vote against BN, Orang Asal 25 to 45 per cent against, and Chinese 75 to 85 per cent against.
Among Orang Ulu 55 per cent against BN, Bidayuh 45 per cent against, Iban 35 per cent against.
KDM would vote 35 per cent to 55 per cent against BN.
All these figures can be extrapolated from the last GE and current developments.
If the Opposition can take on BN one to one, Umno would lose its negotiating status, and BN in Malaya would be virtually wiped out.
BN would survive in Borneo but the Orang Asal would be split down the middle.
DAP would do well in Sarawak including in Orang Asal seats.
The local opposition parties in Sarawak are not likely to make any impact.
DAP would continue to get Chinese support in Sabah and increasingly Orang Asal support together with PKR.
If local opposition parties in Sabah are going to have a fighting chance, they should unite and negotiate with the national opposition alliance.
Shafee Apdal is likely to get 5 to 6 state seats and one or two parliamentary seats. He will work with both the local and national opposition.
Mahathir would reduce and/or eliminate Umno’s negotiating position. He’s likely to take up to a third of Umno’s MP seats. These seats would be in Malaya.
Mahathir’s group won’t benefit if Umno retains its negotiating position. Umno has never been about the people but the elite.